Thursday, October 30, 2008

Election Projection

by DM

The site Election Projection publishes this map:

map from Election Projection site

As promising as this looks for Obama, I have little faith that young people, poor people, and people of color, will turn out on 04 NOV to cast the votes they are projected to cast. Most of the projections for an Obama victory rely on the notion that the millions of people who registered this year and voted in the primaries will actually show-up on election day. As I said: I have reservations about this.

The GOP will use legitimate polling-place tactics (like voter challenges) to slow-down and disrupt voting in minority precincts in swing states (especially Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, and Indiana). They successfully get people to turn away from voting by stalling the progress of the voting queues and having local operatives walk the line, free from law enforcement intervention, discouraging people to vote. They will tell people things like: "Obama's going to carry this state, you don't have to waste your time here." And scores, if not hundreds, of people will get bored with the long wait, the potential grilling they will get from poll witnesses. People will go home without voting, and McCain could win. This is not far-fetched. Many new voters do not understand the rules, regulations, and procedures for voting, and are easily intimidated by white people in suits trying to prevent them from voting. In red states, the poll workers are less inclined to protect the rights of voters, and this could lead to further disenfranchisement of pro-Obama voters.

States using electronic voting devices from Diebold are susceptible to vote tampering, and I believe that any state controlled by the GOP will have their tallies tampered with. Pay special attention to any districts in GA, IN, and MO, that use Diebold's equipment.

These three states have Republican governors whose terms are up this cycle:

Indiana. Indiana's Republican Governor Mitch Daniels is facing re-election. Neither Democrat Democrat Jill Long Thompson nor Libertarian Andrew Horning seem likely to unseat Daniels. A late-September poll showed the incumbent with a 53% share of the vote with 37% for Long Thompson and 6% for Horning. Given the incumbent's seeming victory, his State House is in a position to sway things in favor of McCain, even though McCain's overall support in the state is considered weak.

Missouri. Missouri's Republican Governor Matt Blunt is retiring this year and his seat is contested. Since the Republicans currently control the State House, and there will be a lot of attention paid to the governor's race, this is a state where it might be easy for party operatives to participate in a little voter fraud without garnering much attention. Missouri is currently projected as Weakly Supporting Obama. Nobody will be surprised if it goes to McCain. A little tweaking of vote counts from minority districts and 11 electoral votes go to McCain.

North Dakota. ND's Republican Governor John Hoeven is running for re-election this year. ND is projected as Weakly Supporting McCain. ND is known as a GOP stronghold, and it surprises me that anyone projects the slightest possibility that Obama could carry the state. However, an incumbent Republican running for re-election would be wise to distance himself from the GOP's nationwide campaign. Although this State House is controlled by the Republicans, I suspect that there will be little cooperation if party operatives wanted to finagle the votes to ensure a McCain victory.

Florida and Ohio are completely corrupt states whose voting procedures would embarrass a third-world dictator. The use of Diebold voting machines in these states is almost a moot point, as the state governments are uninterested in free and fair elections.

Free and Fair Elections. The United States has been an advocate of free and fair elections for decades. Some of our leading statesmen, including Presidents, have traveled the world to help ensure that new and burgeoning democracies are playing fair. We attacked a sovereign nation five years ago, insisting that we wanted them to reap the benefits of a free and open democracy.

Along with other Western powers (nations that used to respect us and considered themselves our allies) we defined guidelines for election monitoring. They are simple and logical guidelines. Over the past ten years, the United States has been troubled by voter fraud and election tampering to the degree that our Supreme Court has had to appoint our President. In those ten years we have adjusted our voting methods and gutted voter protection to such a degree that we are not eligible for international election monitoring to ensure that our elections are free and fair. We do not meet the minimum requirements for consideration as free and fair elections.

The United States, long held up as the paragon of open and free democracies no longer holds free and fair elections.


Many polling places have no paper trail.

In order for an election to be considered "free and fair" (as defined by the United States and its allies), there must be a paper record of the voting.

Our Republican Party and their operatives (government and corporate operatives alike) have been working diligently to remove the paper trail from our elections.

This means that Americans must vote the Republicans out of office on as many levels as possible.

Now we have a chance to throw them out of the White House.

This means that EVERYONE has to vote. We have to stand in the lines at our polling places, rain or shine, until the very last minute, to cast our vote for Obama, because the tactics employed by the GOP only work if we surrender.

If you are still not moved to vote and vote for Obama, then perhaps you could consider that the next president will appoint up to three Supreme Court justices.

I have used data collected from the following sources and some newspaper sites.

List of current United States governors

Election Projection:
The Race for the White House - 2008

1 comment:

Al Falafal said...

As awful as it all sounds, I am afraid you are absolutely right. I will be more surprised - and relieved - if the GOP loses this election than if Obama wins, which I hope he does with all my heart.

I have been saying for years that there is no chance of a free and fair election in this country as long as any of the voting is controlled by Diebold/Premiere Election Systems with no paper trail. They changed their name after they were caught rigging the vote in the last 2 elections. But it is still run by the guy who guaranteed he would "deliver the White House" to Bush in 2000 and 04.

What could possibly be the reason they are unable to provide a paper receipt for every vote? After all, Diebold's other claim to fame is as the largest producer of banking ATMs: every one of which is equipped to produce a paper receipt!